The U.S. citizenry has voted.

What's the next step for Canadians?

Author: Matthew Shane
Published: Nov 9, 2026

The American midterm elections have delivered what much of the media is describing as "a blue tsunami".

It's sort of true: Democrats have regained control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, flipping important seats and delivering a substantial electoral rebuke to Donald Trump and his administration. For the first time in his second presidency, Trump will face a Congress controlled by the opposition when the new members take office in January 2027, introducing new constraints on his legislative agenda and considerably expanding congressional oversight of his administration.

These are consequential results, and they deserve to be recognized as such. Once the new Congress is seated, Democratic control could make it more difficult for Trump to advance some of his policies, while giving the opposition greater authority to investigate his administration, scrutinize government spending and challenge decisions that have attracted relatively little congressional resistance over the past two years. For Canadians who have watched the deterioration of Canada–U.S. relations with growing alarm, there are legitimate reasons to welcome these developments.

But there is also reason to be cautious about what the election actually represents, particularly as some of the more enthusiastic reactions begin to suggest that the United States has undergone a fundamental political transformation. The results are significant, certainly, but they have not erased the political divisions that produced Trump's presidency, nor have they eliminated his ability to continue pursuing much of his agenda.

A blue tsunami, or a spring shower?

Although Democrats have won majorities in both chambers, they remain well short of the two-thirds majorities required to override a presidential veto. Trump will therefore retain considerable authority, including the ability to veto legislation passed by Congress and pursue policies through executive orders where permitted by law. Congressional oversight, budgetary authority and the courts can constrain those powers, but divided government may also produce a more confrontational Washington, with Congress and the White House increasingly attempting to obstruct one another.

There is also the question of what the results tell us about the American public. Democrats won decisively, but tens of millions of Americans still voted Republican. The country has not suddenly abandoned the political movement that returned Trump to office in 2024, and the election results do not establish that Americans have collectively reconsidered their country's treatment of Canada. Americans vote on a wide range of domestic concerns, including inflation, healthcare and immigration, and it would be a mistake to interpret every Republican vote as an endorsement of Trump's foreign policy. Nevertheless, the results reveal a country that remains deeply divided.

For Canadians, the distinction between an electoral victory and a fundamental change in American political culture is particularly important. The Democrats have secured meaningful institutional power that they will exercise in the next Congress, but the political forces that have driven the deterioration of Canada–U.S. relations remain very much present. It would be premature to interpret one election as evidence that those forces have been defeated, or that the relationship can now return to its previous form.

Canada's problems with the United States have not disappeared

The tariffs imposed on Canadian industries have not vanished because Democrats won congressional seats. The economic disruption experienced by Canadian manufacturers, exporters and workers has not been undone, nor have the repeated challenges to Canadian sovereignty, including Trump's rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state, simply been erased by an election. Trump remains president, his administration remains in place, and the political and economic structures that have allowed Washington to exert extraordinary pressure on its northern neighbour remain largely intact.

There is certainly reason to hope that a Democratic Congress will introduce greater scrutiny of the administration's trade policies. Some American legislators, including Republicans representing economically integrated border regions, have already expressed concerns about the consequences of tariffs. Congressional opposition could make certain measures more difficult to sustain, particularly where American businesses and consumers are also bearing substantial costs. But whether that opposition translates into meaningful changes to American trade policy remains uncertain.

More importantly, even a substantial reversal of Trump's policies would leave Canada confronting an uncomfortable reality: our economic security has depended too heavily on the political decisions of another country. That dependence developed over decades of increasingly integrated trade, investment, manufacturing and supply chains, and for much of that period, close economic cooperation benefited both countries enormously. The problem was not that Canada traded extensively with the United States, but that we allowed the relationship to become so dominant that changes in American political priorities could threaten entire sectors of our economy.

An election victory is not a reconciliation

There is another aspect of the post-election reaction that deserves consideration. The celebration of Democratic victories has encouraged a familiar narrative: America has rejected Trump's agenda, its democratic institutions have demonstrated their resilience, and the country can begin restoring its relationships with allies. There is some truth to that optimism. Elections are an essential mechanism of democratic accountability, and voters have used this one to impose meaningful limits on presidential power. But from a Canadian perspective, the suggestion that a single election should restore confidence in the United States seems premature.

The relationship has suffered real damage. Canadians have been threatened with economic punishment, subjected to repeated insults, and forced to contemplate the possibility that their closest ally no longer regards their sovereignty as something to be respected unconditionally. There is an uncomfortable resemblance here to the dynamics of a deeply unhealthy relationship, in which one partner behaves aggressively, undermines the other's security, and then expects that a change in behaviour, or even the promise of one, should be enough to restore the relationship to its previous state.

The analogy is imperfect, of course. The United States is a diverse country, and millions of Americans have opposed the administration's treatment of Canada from the beginning. Those distinctions matter, and Canada's longstanding relationships with American citizens, businesses and institutions remain valuable. But trust cannot be restored merely because the immediate threat appears to have diminished. It must be rebuilt through sustained behaviour, reliable commitments and demonstrated respect.

Canada has been building something worth protecting

Perhaps the most important development of the past two years has not occurred in Washington at all, but here in Canada. Canadian businesses have begun reconsidering their dependence on American suppliers and customers. Governments have accelerated efforts to remove barriers to interprovincial trade, strengthen domestic procurement and develop relationships with international partners. Canadian consumers have become more attentive to corporate ownership, manufacturing locations and the economic consequences of their purchasing decisions.

These efforts are still developing, and meaningful diversification will take years. Canada remains deeply integrated with the American economy, and building alternative markets, domestic supply chains and stronger Canadian companies is neither quick nor inexpensive. But the benefits extend far beyond protection from Trump's policies. A Canada with stronger domestic manufacturing, more competitive businesses, greater technological independence and more diversified international relationships would be better positioned to withstand economic disruptions from any source.

Economic independence does not require economic isolation. Canada can maintain a productive, mutually beneficial relationship with its southern neighbour while reducing the risks associated with excessive dependence on that relationship. Indeed, a stronger and more resilient Canadian economy would make future cooperation with the United States healthier, not weaker.

So, what happens now?

The Democrats' victory is a meaningful development, and Canadians can reasonably welcome the prospect of stronger congressional oversight and greater constraints on the Trump administration. But the election has not resolved the underlying problems in Canada–U.S. relations. It has not eliminated American tariffs, restored damaged trust or removed the possibility of renewed economic confrontation. Nor has it eliminated the reasons Canadians began reconsidering their purchasing decisions in the first place.

We should resist treating Buy Canadian as a temporary protest that becomes unnecessary whenever relations with Washington improve. Supporting Canadian businesses, strengthening domestic production and keeping more economic activity within Canada are worthwhile objectives regardless of which political party controls Congress. None of this requires hostility toward Americans or a permanent boycott of American products. Canadians can continue to value American friendships, businesses and institutions while making deliberate choices that strengthen our own economy.

The American electorate has delivered a significant political correction, and what that correction ultimately accomplishes remains to be seen. For Canada, however, the more important question is whether we have learned enough from the past two years to recognize that our economic future should never depend so heavily on what happens in an American election. We have begun building a more independent, resilient and economically self-reliant Canada. That work deserves to continue regardless of what happens next in Washington.

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