Iranian Attacks on Aluminum Smelters: Implications for Canada
Author: The CANADA List Team
Published: Apr 3, 2026
On March 28th, Iranian drones and missiles struck two of the Middle East's largest aluminum smelters.
The first target was Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah facility in Abu Dhabi, a site producing 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal annually; the second was Aluminium Bahrain's plant in Askar, which had a capacity of 1.62 million tonnes per year. Both of these are considered two of the largest single-site aluminum smelters in the world. The full extent of the damage at both sites remains under assessment, however, there are reasons to believe that the facilities could experience significantly reduced production capacity for many months, if not years.
To put all of this in context: the U.S. produced approximately 670,000 tonnes of primary aluminum domestically in 2024. Thus, each of these facilities individually outproduces the entire United States. Indeed, prior to the conflict, aluminum production in the Middle East accounted for roughly 9% of global aluminum supply and was the source of more than a fifth of all aluminum imported by the United States.
The reaction in commodity markets was immediate: Aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange jumped 5.5% on the first trading day following the attacks, briefly touching $3,492 per tonne. This, even in the context of consistently increasing aluminum pricing since Iran's broader conflict with the region began in late February.
How Canada Fits into This
Canada is the world's fourth-largest producer of primary aluminum, behind China, the Middle East, and Russia, with 3.3 million tonnes produced in 2024 (its highest output ever). Nearly all of this aluminum is produced in Quebec (with a bit also coming from Kitimat, British Columbia) from one of three major producers – Rio Tinto, Alcoa and Aluminiere Alouette. This is not entirely by coincidence: aluminum smelting requires an extremely high amount of electricity, and Quebec's vast hydroelectric network makes it a particularly strategic location for this smelting to take place. In fact, Quebec's smelters account for approximately 60% of all North American aluminum production.
Canada's primary purchaser of this aluminum has always been, you guessed it: the United States. And this has remained true even as Trump’s imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum have climbed to 50% - indeed, the vast majority of Canadian aluminum exports has still been finding its way south of the border in recent months. Why? Because aluminum is strategically embedded in critical supply chains (e.g. for automotive, aerospace, construction, and packaging), and because the United States simply doesn’t have the capacity to make enough aluminum on their own. They are dependent on the rest of the world for this (and other) key resources. And so even with 50% tariffs, American industry has needed to purchase aluminum from Canada.
And this was true before these two Middle Eastern aluminum facilities were targeted by Iran. Now, following those attacks, the U.S. is going to need to fill an addition ~22% shortage in aluminum imports. Will Canada benefit from this? We’re the obvious solution, should Trump be willing to request our help. But that’s not really Trump’s style, is it?
The Tariff Shuffle
You know what is Trump’s style? Tariffs. And, perhaps predictably, almost simultaneously with the news from the Gulf, the Trump administration announced a revision to its existing Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff policy. The 50% tariff on commodity aluminum imports remains intact (for now). However, finished goods that contain aluminum as a component will now face a lower 25% tariff rate. The administration described the change as “a simplification, aimed at reducing the compliance burden”. Right, sure.
Is this a softening of U.S. trade policy toward Canada. That’s probably too generous an interpretation. But with Gulf supply now disrupted and aluminum prices surging, the ability for Canadian smelters to keep product flowing to the United States may become increasingly important. If you’re an optimist, you may see this as an opportunity for Canada to gain an upper hand (and increased profits) as this geopolitical saga wages on. If you’re a pessimist, you may worry that this could push Trump to further contemplate infringing on Canadian sovereignty, to give the U.S. the control it wants over critical natural resources. Water, oil, minerals…Canada has what the U.S. needs, which could make us their best friend, or their number one target.
Tucker Carlson, a Domestic Propagandist
Within this context, we can’t help but note that on April 2nd, the same day the Gulf smelter story dominated commodity markets, Tucker Carlson published an episode of The Tucker Carlson Show that put Canada in the crosshairs. Framed around the Iran conflict and its geopolitical consequences, the episode included the following paraphrased passages: “As American influence recedes to our hemisphere…you could certainly make a regime change argument about Canada...Canada is not a sovereign country. It never has been, ever.”
There’s a lot to be offended by in that statement (let alone the rest of the crazy that this show propagates). However, we want to focus on one line: “As American influence recedes to our hemisphere…”.
There’s a lot embedded in that line:
- Recognition of declining American influence
- An assumption that what remains of that influence includes the entire hemisphere, including Canada and Mexico
- And, one step further: the implication that the U.S. is scared
This is the crux of it: American influence is receding and, like a rat caught in the corner of a room, it’s getting scared. What will their reaction be? It’s hard to know. But Carlson’s comments – whether you deem him a reliable source or not – makes something clear: at least some people, in some factions of the country, are floating the idea of regaining American influence through aggressive means (isn’t that what we’re already seeing in the Middle East)?
It’s easy to minimize Carlson as a mere talking head, but he is a talking head with a large audience, and a demonstrated ability to push narratives into the mainstream. And what he’s doing is simultaneously expressing, and stoking, fear in the U.S public. He’s reminding them of their vulnerabilities, and he’s greasing the skids of public sentiment. And if the American people themselves become scared…well, things can get pretty unpredictable when people get scared.
What Canada Should Do With This?
Is this something that Canada should be concerned about? Probably not imminently – Trump has enough distractions on his plate at the moment, and any offensive strategies aimed towards Canada would occur on a timescale too drawn out to solve the U.S.’s current aluminum shortage. In fact, in the short term, one could argue that Canada is better positioned than it has been in some time.
But the broader point is that the United States is entering a more uncertain and reactive phase, and that will almost certain impact how it approaches its relationship with Canada (and all its allies, for that matter). Canada knows this – it’s eyes are wide open at this point – and should thus stay the same course that it has been on for the better part of the past year: continue diversifying export markets, continue developing international partnerships, continue strengthening its role within broader defense and economic alliances. Maintain a constructive relationship with the United States, but appreciate that ‘constructive’ and ‘friendly’ are not the same thing. The United States remains our largest trading partner, but it is not, currently, our friend, and Canada should not operate under any such illusions.
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