🧾 Trump Continues to Bluster; The World Fatigues
July 15, 2025
President Donald Trump has once again taken aim at Canadian trade, threatening to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods , up from the existing 25%. The new tariff would take effect August 1, unless a deal is reached. While the announcement claims to target only “non-compliant” products, Trump also stated that USMCA exemptions could be revoked “based on Canada’s behaviour,” leaving little doubt that this is more political weapon than rules-based enforcement.
The stated rationale includes Canada’s dairy policies and—more controversially—its alleged role in cross-border fentanyl trafficking. This despite the fact that less than 0.1% of U.S. fentanyl seizures occur at the Canadian border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The data isn’t really the point here; it’s posturing. Tariffs remain Trump’s favourite blunt-force tool, and Canada—ever the convenient foil—has been pulled back into the spotlight.
In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delayed retaliatory tariffs that had been expected by July 21, opting instead to keep negotiations open until August 1. Carney cited “constructive progress,” and pointed to recent Canadian initiatives, including a $1-billion border security upgrade and the appointment of a new “border czar” as signs of good faith. But the mood in Ottawa is clear-eyed: the White House isn’t looking for technical compliance—it’s looking for leverage.
The Canadian dollar dipped on the news, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford has publicly urged Ottawa to prepare countermeasures. But for now, the federal government is holding its line, emphasizing diplomacy over escalation.
Our Take: At this point, Canadians are likely starting to fatigue from the constant tariff drama. The threats, the deadlines, the vague accusations—it’s become a familiar pattern. But maybe that’s exactly the point. The more routine it feels, the less shocking it becomes. And that normalization of economic pressure may be Trump’s real strategy: wear us down, keep us reactive, and keep the power imbalance intact.
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